College Football Playoff Time

Posted on December 2nd, 2008 by Mark Casey

Disclaimer: This article has nothing to do with Baselodge Group’s business. My friends and clients who read this blog will forgive me this diversion from work. I am a passionate college football fan, and I want to use this podium to express my thoughts. In the interest of full disclosure, I am a Texas Ex and ardent Longhorn supporter. However, I believe that the desire for a playoff crosses all affiliations and allegiances. The timing of this article is that as I write, we are about to begin the bowl season and we are a few days before the conference championship games. The timing is right for me to think it all through.

Tradition

Tradition is powerful and often good. Sometimes, though, tradition prevents progress. In the case of college football (Football Bowl Subdivision, formerly known as Div. 1-A), tradition is both good and bad. Tradition can make the hair stand up on the neck when it intersects with the passion of the fan. When it comes to selecting a national champion, however, our tradition is just bad. It has always been bad. When I was a kid I remember being so confused about who the national champion was each year. Split national championships were commonplace. How can you have two teams both crowned national champion? The same way you can have two heavyweight boxing champions. If there is not some definitive body that declares a champion, do you really have one? In all other collegiate sports (including Football Championship Subdivision, formerly known as Div. 1-AA) that definitive body is the NCAA. They crown the national champions and everyone recognizes it. When it comes to the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS), however, we have always had to accept an MNC – Mythical National Champion. Think about that for a little while. Mythical.

Why does the NCAA not crown a champion in the Football Bowl Subdivision? The answer is in the second word – “bowl.” Why do we have bowls? As Tevye would say: “Tradition!” Without going back to research the genesis of the bowl system and why things started that way, let me just say that I am sure there were good reasons for it and I am sure it has done a lot of good things. However, when tradition holds us back, it is time to make some new traditions. That is exactly what we must do.

You Don’t Like Bowls?

I just love college football. I will watch almost every bowl again this year. The only ones I won’t watch are the minor ones if I have a conflict. My son, Matt, and I agree with the Capital One jingle that bowl season is “the most wonderful time of the year.” It’s just that the bowl system does not produce a true national champion. Even with the BCS it still only produces a mythical national champion. It is time to create a true playoff while maintaining as much of the current bowl tradition as we can. The parts of the bowl system that cannot be maintained traditionally will just have to change. Like children, bowls are resilient and will adapt. Some of the changes may involve bowls being played on non-traditional dates. Big deal. I have been to the Rose Bowl twice, the Cotton Bowl, the Sugar Bowl, and the Holiday Bowl twice. I don’t remember or care the exact date of those games.

So, before I launch into my proposed system, let me reiterate that some of our bowl system traditions will have to change. A large part of it can be maintained, however, and the new traditions that will be established will, in time, be even more powerful and cherished.

8 Teams or 16 Teams?

Generally the more the merrier for playoff systems, but given the challenge of implementing a playoff in the current FBS, I am proposing an 8 team playoff to start. In fact, the FCS did not begin with its current 16 team format. They began incrementally with a 4 team playoff in 1978 and expanded it to 8 teams in 1981. The current 16 team format was adopted in 1986 (2008 bracket here). Just for the record, in a 16 team playoff the first round could be hosted by the higher seeded team like the FCS handles their first 2 rounds.

How do we select the 8 teams? While I hate the current BCS system (current standings here), we can at least start with them to propose this playoff scenario. How likely is it that the best team in 2008 is one of the top 8 teams? Pretty likely. I am certain that the best team in the country is one of the top 16 teams, but let’s stick with the current top 8. As of this writing, which is before the conference championship games in the Big 12, SEC, and ACC, the top 8 teams are as follows:

  1. Alabama
  2. Oklahoma
  3. Texas
  4. Florida
  5. USC
  6. Utah
  7. Texas Tech
  8. Penn State

I propose doing away with the conference championship games. This is not integral to my plan, but it helps with the calendar and planning to do away with these three games.

Before I deal with where and when these 8 teams would play, let me discuss the other teams that are not in the top 8. In the current bowl system there are 34 bowls scheduled to be played in 2008. That means 68 teams will get to play one final game after their regular season. In an 8 team playoff, teams ranked 9-68 (as an example) will still play in bowls. I realize that the BCS Standings only go through #25, but current conference tie-ins can still be maintained and the precious bowl committee members with their goofy blazers can still get to make trips, feel important, and extend bowl invitations to the schools of their choice. Listen, if Florida State (#25) plays Michigan State (#21) in the Sun Bowl in El Paso, I will still watch it even though the top 8 are going to be playing it off to determine a champion. The Sun Bowl is still college football.

Here is my proposal for these 8 teams. To get to a champion, there has to be 3 playoff rounds. This means 7 total games to a champion. Let’s take 7 of the current bowls and designate them “championship bowls.” We will call this the FB&CS – the Football Bowl & Championship Subdivision.

I would add the Holiday Bowl and Cotton Bowl to the current four BCS Bowls and the current BCS Championship Game to get my 7 bowls for the playoffs.

Round One (December 26-27, 2008)

  • Holiday Bowl
  • Cotton Bowl
  • Fiesta Bowl (this spot can be rotated with the other traditional BCS bowls)
  • Sugar Bowl (this spot can be rotated with the other traditional BCS bowls)

Round Two (January 3, 2009)

  • Orange Bowl (this spot can be rotated with the other traditional BCS bowls)
  • Rose Bowl (this spot can be rotated with the other traditional BCS bowls)

Round Three (January 10, 2009)

  • Championship Game

Taking the current standings as the seeds for the playoffs provides great bowl matchups in the first round, tremendous matchups in the second round, and a true national champion, sans the “mythical,” in the climactic final round. Let’s just do the matchups based on seeding and randomly assign the teams to bowls:

Round One (December 26-27, 2008)

  • Holiday Bowl: 1 Alabama v. 8 Penn State
  • Cotton Bowl: 2 Oklahoma v. 7 Texas Tech
  • Fiesta Bowl: 3 Texas v. 6 Utah
  • Sugar Bowl: 4 Florida v. 5 USC

Round Two (January 3, 2009)

  • Orange Bowl: 1 Alabama v. 3 Texas
  • Rose Bowl: 2 Oklahoma v. 4 Florida

Round Three (January 10, 2009)

  • Championship Game: 1 Alabama v. 2 Oklahoma

Please take a look at each of these matchups and ask yourself four questions. First, is this a good matchup? Second, would the bowl game be well attended? Third, would this game have a large TV audience? Finally, would the fans travel to the games? All four questions are related in that they speak to the revenue issue. I think there would be plenty of money to satisfy the schools, conferences, etc.

Sometimes the matchups will seem strange because of the seedings and the opponents. For example, someone might say, didn’t we just watch Oklahoma beat Texas Tech? Yes, but that was Tech’s only loss. A rematch in a true playoff would be intriguing at least. Even if it turned out the same way, I can live with one “bad” game out of four. After all, playoffs are win or go home. The other three first round matchups are terrific and would generate a lot of excitement. Let’s look at the second round. Wow. Do you suppose anyone would be interested in Colt McCoy and Texas playing undefeated Alabama? How about Sam Bradford and Oklahoma taking on Tim Tebow and the Gators? And if the seedings held, an undefeated Alabama team in Nick Saban’s second year at the helm against once-beaten and rolling Bob Stoops and Oklahoma?

Won’t This Kill the “Minor” Bowls?

No. Even in the current system the “minor” bowls already match teams with no shot at the MNC. These bowls will still operate in much the same fashion as they always have. I suspect their fanbases and TV audiences will be pretty much the same. Their corporate sponsors will remain. The bad blazers will still exist. Matt and I will still watch them. Why? Because we love college football. They will still be free to schedule their bowl game whenever they want to and to maximize TV coverage. I would just advise them not to schedule their games opposite the playoffs.

Conclusion

I know there are complexities and problems that will arise from this or any other true playoff system. What about the #9 ranked team in an 8 team playoff or the #17 ranked team in a 16 team playoff? March Madness flourishes despite limiting the tournament field. A lot of the objections to a system like this are either totally disingenuous (this is too many games for student-athletes) or tradition-bound. My bottom line is that readjusting some traditions and dealing with some hard issues is a price worth paying to have a true national champion and not just a mythical champion or split national champions.

5 Responses to This Article

  1. Ben Lee

    Wednesday, December 3, 2008

    I agree completely. I think one important consideration for this to ever happen is proving to the conferences and universities, particularly those that are not in the playoff field, that they will still share in the revenue generated by such a system just as they do for the current bowls. This would be especially true given that it likely requires losing the revenue from a conference championship game and/or the recently added 12th regular season game.

    Another opposing view commonly held has been that the regular season functions as a playoff since every game means so much and to many, that’s part of the excitement of college football. It should be obvious with recent events and numerous other accounts in previous years (split champions in 2003, Auburn snubbed even undefeated in the SEC in 2004, the obvious Big XII debacle this year) that the notion of the regular season settling anything is just not always true. I also think the 8 team playoff is fair but so highly selective that it means each regular season game is still of critical importance.

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  4. Mark L. Casey

    Wednesday, December 3, 2008

    There IS something to be said for every game really counting. As you said, to get in the top 8 or even the top 16, each game still really matters. This will be very much unlike the NFL where it is possible to get into the playoffs as a wildcard team with a .500 record. In the current top 8 of the BCS there is a total of 6 losses. No 2-loss teams are in this group. This is an average of 0.75 losses per team.

    When we expand it to the current top 16 teams, we add 2 undefeated teams (Boise State and Ball State), 3 2-loss teams (Ohio State, TCU, and Cincinnati), and 3 3-loss teams (Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, and Boston College). At the top 16 level, that is a total of 18 losses or 1.125 losses per team on average.

    I would say that each game still matters. If you want to be in the top 8 you need to try to win every game. You can still make it if you have just one loss and other factors are in your favor. If you have 2 losses, the top 8 may not work for you most years, but the top 16 probably will.

    Just for fun, what would the first round of a 16-team playoff this year look like?

    1 Alabama v. 16 Boston College in Tuscaloosa, AL
    2 Oklahoma v. 15 Georgia Tech in Norman, OK
    3 Texas v. 14 Oklahoma State in Austin, TX (a rematch of a tight 28-24 Longhorn win)
    4 Florida v. 13 Cincinnati in Gainsville, FL
    5 USC v. 12 Ball State in Los Angeles, CA
    6 Utah v. 11 TCU in Salt Lake City, UT (OK, another rematch but of a close 13-10 Ute victory)
    7 Texas Tech v. 10 Ohio State in Lubbock, TX
    8 Penn State v. 9 Boise State in State College, PA

    Each of those games would be a tremendous draw at the stadium and on TV. The top 8 teams get rewarded with an extra home game.

  5. Joel McWaters

    Wednesday, December 10, 2008

    Here is the best way to keep both the BCS and the four main bowls.
    Each Div-1 team may only play 10 regular season games, plus the potential conference game.
    After the conference games are completed, the BCS comes out with their final rankings. Here is and example using recent standings:
    1-Alabama
    2-Texas Tech
    3-Texas
    4-Florida
    5-Oklahoma
    6-USC
    7-Utah
    8-Penn State

    Here is the bracket (with game sites and supposed winners)

    First-round of playoffs (First weekend of December)

    8-Penn State vs.____winner____Alabama
    1-Alabama @ AL

    5-Oklahoma vs._____winner____Florida
    4-Florida @ FLA

    7-Utah vs.__________winner____Texas Tech
    2-Texas Tech @ Texas Tech

    6-USC vs.__________winner____Texas
    3-Texas @ Texas

    Second-round of playoffs (Second weekend of December)
    4-Florida vs.________winner____Florida
    1-Alabama @ AL

    3-Texas vs._________winner____Texas
    2-Texas Tech @ Texas Tech

    Now, after the first round, the losers in the first round, Penn State, Oklahoma, Utah and USC fill in the first two BCS bowls:
    Rose Bowl – Jan 1. Penn State vs. USC
    Fiesta Bowl – Jan 2. Oklahoma vs. Utah
    After the second round, the next BCS bowl is filled by the losers of that game:
    Sugar Bowl – Jan 3. Texas Tech vs Alabama
    And finally the fourth BCS bowl, is the national championship game, after a whole TWO Weeks of playoffs:
    Orange Bowl (Nat’l Champ. game) – Jan 4. Texas vs. Florida.

    You wanna home playoff game? Win more than anyone else. It works in almost every other major sport.

    Sorry if you are #9 in the country, you don’t have a valid claim to play for the national title.

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